The Cardinals make some rotation additions

In the span of just one week, the St. Louis Cardinals added 3 veterans right handers to their rotation. This isn’t surprising because the Card’s rotation last year had the 5th worst ERA in baseball last year at 5.08. John Mozeliak had to have this as priority number 1 for this offseason and he came out of the gates fast signing Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Sonny Gray. Here is a breakdown of each player, their contract, and what it all means for the outlook of the 2024 St. Louis Cardinals.

Lance Lynn

Contract: 1yr/$10 million, club option for 2025 worth $11 million with $1 million buyout

Lance Lynn returns to the team that drafted him in 2008 and the one he debuted with in 2011. Since leaving St. Louis (3.38 ERA in 977.2 innings over 6 years), Lynn has still had success, but his 2023 campaign was the worst of his career. In the southside of Chicago, he got peppered before getting flipped to Los Angeles where he saw better results but nothing outstanding. Leading the league in home runs allowed at 44 was the main issue he had along with a decrease in fastball velocity and the lowest K-BB% since 2018, a season he struggled in.

Overall, not a bad signing for the backend of a rotation, as a flyball pitcher, having plus defenders like Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill, and Dylan Carlson roaming in the outfield will help a lot. A key for Lynn for this upcoming season is locating the fastball, especially now that he is getting older, and the velocity is trending down.

Kyle Gibson

Contract: 1yr/$12 million, club option for 2025 worth $12 million with $1 million buyout

With Gibson, you know exactly what you are getting each year; around 180 high 4s ERA innings. His sinker/sweeper combo and good location of each pitch was solid last year. Like Lynn, this is a great signing to round out a rotation in the backend. Gibson is going to be reliable, take the ball every 5th day, and keep you in games. The end of season numbers may not look so great, but every staff needs a guy to eat innings.

Sonny Gray

Contract: 3 yrs/$75 million guaranteed, club option for 2027 worth $30 million with $5 million buyout

This signing moves the needle a lot more than the previous 2. Sonny Gray is coming off a year with the Minnesota Twins where he was the runner-up in AL Cy Young race to Gerrit Cole. He posted a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings, also, he led the whole league in FIP at 2.84. The FIP being that low is due to a career low in HR/FB rate of 5.2%. Even with some luck with the long ball, his peripheral numbers are still good. For this contract, the money distribution is backloaded, allowing the Cards more flexibility for this season. Also, when Gray’s compensation jumps to $35 million in the 3rd year, Paul Goldschmidt, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz contracts will be off the books. It was very well planned by Mozeliak to structure it this way and stay flexible when it comes to payroll in the coming seasons.

What it means for 2024

To summarize, the Cardinals dished out nearly $100 million for 3 pitchers that are ages 34, 36, and 36. For 2024, their estimated payroll is now looking like $170-180 million depending on where you look, and they still have holes to fill. I think they need another frontline starter and always more bullpen help to contend for a title in 2024. As of right now, their rotation looks like this:

1- Sonny Gray

2- Miles Mikolas

3- Kyle Gibson

4- Lance Lynn

5- Steven Matz/Drew Rom/Matthew Liberatore

That’s a pretty solid rotation in 2019, the problem is the first 4 pitchers in that rotation are in their mid to late 30s and likely past their primes. That rotation isn’t going to win you a World Series, but you will at least contend for a division title. The NL central is a very interesting group of 5 teams right now. The Reds and Cubs are looking like they are coming out of their rebuilds in different ways. The Pirates overperformed last year and have a nice core but the Brewers look like they may blow it up and restart any day now. This puts the Cardinals in a weird spot with their underperformance last season. The Card’s lineup is going to go, no question about that, but the pitching is rough. If the Cardinals win the NL central in 2024, it will be because their lineup was a top 5 lineup in baseball, not because Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson were eating up innings. As of right now, I think the favorites for the division are the Cubs just because I think Jed Hoyer is going to make some splashes this offseason. However, if the Cardinals went out and brought in a Yoshinobu Yamamoto type, that would change everything. I like these moves for Saint Louis but they need to keep adding to really make a run in 2024.