With the Texas Rangers winning the 2023 World Series, the regular season has come to an end and the off-season begins. A crucial time of the year when teams restructure their rosters through trades, free agency, and more. This is my first blog on my website and if you didn’t know from the title, I’ll be writing about some underrated free agents that I think could be valuable for all 30 clubs. Enjoy!
1. Nick Martinez
One of the most underrated and valuable parts of creating a pitching staff today is finding “swing” guys or pitchers who can provide length out of the bullpen. As the season goes on, injuries happen, or starters can have blowup outings when they can’t get out of the 3rd inning. That’s where pitchers like Nick Martinez become so important. I started following Martinez closer through box scores in 2022 when the Padres made the 5th seed in the new expanded playoffs. Eventually, that team got all the way to the NLCS losing in 5 games to the Philadelphia Phillies. Martinez was so important for the Padres’ success that year after coming back to the majors for the first time since 2017 when he was a Texas Ranger.
In 2022, Nick threw 106.1 innings in 47 appearances (10 starts) to a 3.47 ERA. He struck out 21.2% of the batters he faced while walking 9.2%, as you’d imagine his FIP (4.43) was much higher than his ERA. This is nothing new to Martinez, in his 2 seasons with the Padres, he has a 3.45 ERA but 4.17 FIP. He walks a few more batters than the league average and strikes out a few less than league average. Martinez allows home runs at a league average rate and all these factors will lead to a pitcher outperforming his FIP.
This past season, Martinez has similar results: 110.1 IP, 63 appearances (9 starts), 3.43 ERA, 23.0 K%, and 8.7 BB%. Just simply looking at WAR, it was his best season at 1.4 in bWAR and fWAR. He didn’t get hit hard, finishing in the 98th and 95th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit%. To compliment that, he ran a 54.0 GB% with an elite defensive infield behind him. Weak ground balls and plus defense (depending on where you look) behind you at 3 infield spots is a recipe for success like Martinez enjoyed this year.
Having a swing man on a staff is vital for a 162-game season. If I was constructing a roster, I’d always have at least 3 on my 40-man and at least 1 on the 26-man roster. You never know when I pitcher is going to get hurt or just not have his best stuff. Nick Martinez can start, give length out of the bullpen to bridge to higher leverage arms, and be a stopper with a 5-pitch mix. Every club in baseball should at least be checking in on him to hear what the price is going to look like.
2. Robert Stephenson
As a Reds fan, it is frustrating that we could never unlock Robert Stephenson’s potential. Drafted in 2011 out of high school as a first-round pick usually means you are going to be a project and need time to develop. And Stephenson was just that, he didn’t debut until 2016 as a starter and it didn’t go well at all. When he transitioned to the bullpen, he performed very well for the 2019 campaign and then COVID happened. He only threw 10 innings and gave up 11 earned runs, not great. That offseason, he got flipped to Colorado where he pitched to a 3.13 ERA in 46 innings. Stephenson spent some time in Pittsburgh with the Pirates until he was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays in June of 2023…
Stephenson threw 38.1 innings to a 2.35 ERA. He struck out an incredible 38.3% of the batters he faced and walked just 8% (a significant improvement from his career 10.2 BB%). Robert also boasted an 0.88 WHIP, the third lowest among qualified relievers in 2023, behind LA’s Evan Phillips and Detroit’s Tyler Holton.
When he arrived in St. Pete, he began to throw a cutter which dropped his 4-seam and slider usage. The 4-seam has a negative run value, however Stuff+ loves it at 116. If a club can get Stephenson to locate better, he’ll have a mid to upper 90s fastball to use off his electric cutter. He held right-handed hitters to a .210 wOBA due to his new cutter while lefties had a .303 wOBA. Robert is a guy you want to use in the right-handed lane of a lineup while limiting the number of lefties he sees as best you can.
Discovering a cutter is a career changing pitch for Stephenson and it could not have come at a better time. He’s about to hit free agency with the potential to get a multi-year deal as a reliever, those do not get thrown out often. You can never have enough pitching and getting a right-handed stopper like Stephenson improves any roster significantly.
3. Gio Urshela
Gio Urshela is coming off a tough year where he battled injuries and a lack of production, he never really got into a rhythm in his first (likely only) season in Anaheim. However, I still think there are things teams could tap into to bring back a Minnesota Twins or 2019 Yankees version of Gio.
In 2023, Gio Urshela chased outside of the zone 8.5 points above average, and his average exit velocity was 1 MPH slower than league average. Neither of these are necessarily shocking because Urshela has always chased outside the zone and never “mashed” the ball. However, he has had solid seasons in the past if you consider average exit velocity. Urshela won’t win games with baserunning either, he had a -1.7 BsR in 2023 (-23.4 career BsR). He is 7 for 11 in his career on stolen bases, the value Urshela will bring to a team is with the bat.
Urshela isn’t exactly a “slap” hitter when you look at his swing in 2023, but his batted ball profile would lead you to believe that he is. He sprays line drives to each part of the field and has below league average strikeout and whiff rates. Throughout his career, he has performed better against LHP (109 wRC+) vs. RHP (101 wRC+). This past season, he has drastic splits in just 228 PA, 136 wRC+ vs. LHP and 78 wRC+ vs. RHP. Something I noticed when looking at his swing from previous years compared to his swing with the Angels, was the angle of his bat when he begins his load. The head of his bat is significantly flatter than it was in 2021 or 2019, his career years. This is forcing his swing to get flatter leading to him getting beat by sinkers and cutters. The numbers back this up in his -5 Run Value against sinkers/cutters in 2023, while he was +10 in 2022 (+5 in each pitch). Below is his setup in 2019, 2022, and 2023.
2019
2022
2023
His defense also plays at the corners, mainly at 3rd, owning a career 10 DRS. However, Statcast’s OAA has him at -18 in his career. 3rd base is his best position where he played the most but can fill in everywhere else if needed. If a staff can sure up the glovework, he’s passable at nearly all the infield positions. Any club could use Urshela, he is platoon proof and even if he isn’t in the lineup every day for a team, that’s a pretty good infield bat off the bench when you need it.
Each of these players are different in their own way. Martinez needed to go to Japan to revitalize his career, Stephenson found a career changing pitch, and Gio Urshela is bounce back candidate who can be a solid middle-of-the-lineup bat for any club. Urshela needs to make some adjustments in the box, and he could sneak into the Top 10 3rd baseman lists in baseball. Meanwhile, I just don’t think enough people are giving Stephenson or Martinez the credit they deserve for their production this past season. I’m hoping my team will give Nick Martinez an offer he can’t refuse.
This is a well written analysis and a great baseball blog. We’ll done at !!