This past Sunday, the Philadelphia Phillies inked their homegrown starter Aaron Nola to a 7-year, 172-million-dollar extension. This comes as no surprise as both sides wanted a reunion coming into this offseason after getting knocked out at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks in NLCS. I’ll break down both sides based off Nola and his camp’s comments as well as short-term and long-term roster outlook for the Phillies, starting with the contract from Nola’s perspective.
It was clear since the Phillies season ended that their number 1 priority was to try and retain Aaron Nola. Conveniently, Aaron Nola wanted to stay in Philly. Nola was drafted by the Phillies in the 1st round of the 2014 draft (7th overall) out of LSU. Nola was coming off a spring where he threw 116.1 innings and gave up just 16 earned runs, that’s a 1.47 ERA. His K/BB rate was nearly 5, at 4.96. Nola debuted in 2015 after flying through AA and AAA that same year. After a good but unlucky 2016 season, Nola has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball from 2017 to 2022. Nola threw 1,039.2 innings and had a 3.48 ERA, that’s the 2nd most among starters in that time frame and he had the 5th lowest ERA out the 13 qualified pitchers. That brings me to his 2023 campaign that was unlike Aaron Nola from previous seasons.
In 2023, Aaron Nola had a 4.46 ERA and 4.03 FIP. These are both up from his stellar 2022 numbers, 3.25 ERA and 2.58 FIP. This is mainly due to his HR/FB shooting up from 9.8% in 2022 to an above league average 15.6%. This makes his xFIP much better at 3.63 to go along with a 3.77 xERA. In other words, he gave up too many long balls in a contract year, leaving a lot of money on the table. However, Nola was very clear to the media and the Phillies organization that he wanted to stay in Philadelphia. The AAV he’ll get over the next 7 years (24.5 million) was less than what he could have gotten, even coming off a disappointing contract season. A similar contract that comes to mind is Carlos Rodon’s for the Yankees. He signed a 6-year 162-million-dollar (27 million AAV) contract in the 2023 offseason. Rodon was coming off an All-Star year with the White Sox but only put together a year with 25 or more starts once before that. Rodon and Nola are 2 very different pitchers. Nola’s value comes from his quantity of innings as he is a near guarantee to take the ball every 5th day. Rodon will get a lot of whiffs and strikeouts with his elite stuff but struggles to stay healthy. If Rodon could get 27 million a year for 1 elite season, Nola could have gotten that because of his previous seasons in the red pinstripes. The Yankees overpaid for Rodon and the Phillies got Nola very cheap when you look at his entire body of work. For Nola, none of this mattered because he wants to win a World Series in Philly, so he traded less money for more years on his contract. Aaron Nola is going to be a huge part of this Phillies team over the next few years, their window to win a World Series in the short term.
Short-term outlook
Bringing back Nola to pair up with Zack Wheeler at the top of the Phillies rotation is huge for the Phillies World Series chances in 2023. Dombrowski clearly wanted to bring him back rather than let him go and gamble on a long-term contract with Blake Snell for example. Snell’s style is similar to Rodon where the stuff and strikeouts are there but there isn’t a lot of quantity. With Aaron Nola as your number 2, the Phillies will get quality and quantity innings, like their ace Zack Wheeler. That 1-2 punch of Wheeler/Nola we’ve seen the past 2 postseasons has been extremely effective and now they can continue it for at least 1 more season (Wheeler’s last season on his contract is 2024). The Phillies 2024 rotation looks like the following:
1. Zack Wheeler
2. Aaron Nola
3. Ranger Suarez
4. Taijuan Walker
5. Christopher Sanchez
For next season, they will also get top prospect Andrew Painter back from Tommy John surgery late in the year. The club could use another frontline starter and they have been linked to popular free agents Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Sonny Gray. The only concern is whether they will have the budget for it, but owner John Middleton has clearly not been scared to spend. I think a good fit for the Phils’ could be Marcus Stroman. A groundball pitcher in Citizens Bank Park is a good combo and Stro would fit in their clubhouse perfectly. If they can’t pay for one of the premier starters, they could go to the trade market looking for one of the Mariners young starters or Dylan Cease. The money they save on Nola’s deal can not only be used to get another starter but perhaps a high-leverage reliever to take Craig Kimbrel’s role or a corner outfielder.
Long-term outlook
The Phillies window with their current core will only last until 2027 at the latest. By 2026, their only guaranteed contracts will be Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, and Nick Castellanos’. By then Walker and Castellanos will likely be on different teams because of their contracts, Castellanos even came up in trade rumors this offseason. In 2026, their young players will be in the later stages of arbitration and become more expensive each year. With all their players on guaranteed contracts getting into their late 30s, it’s likely the Phillies would begin shopping the Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott types. Most contracts like Nola, Turner, and Harper’s downside are that the cost for their prime years is the high AAV in their declining years. We will likely see this with Nola but that is the price for his prime years over the next 2 or 3 seasons.
Grades
Phillies: A
Bringing back Nola at a discounted price is crucial for the Phillies’ next few years as they try to bring a World Series to Philadelphia for the first time since 2008. With Nola in their rotation for the next 7 years, they’ll have him take the ball every time its his turn and he’ll turn in around 170 quality innings. For 2024, they’ll run out Wheeler, Nola, and hopefully another established starter to round out the rotation. It’ll likely be the last season we see Wheeler and Nola as the 1-2 for the Phillies as they push for a ring.
Nola: A-
Nola could have gotten more money, but you can’t blame him for taking a discount to stay in Philly. He’ll be there for the next 7 years in a city that him and his family knows. Every player has their own priorities, Nola’s was clear. He wants to play and win in Philly for a long time while being paid accordingly, that’s exactly what he got.
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